When the Met Office issued its first Yellow Weather Warning for heavy rain on Thursday, November 27, 2025, it wasn’t just another autumn storm alert — it was a signal that the UK’s weather had turned volatile again. From southwest England to the highlands of Scotland, households, transport networks, and emergency services are bracing for a weekend of relentless rain, localized flooding, and gusts hitting 75 mph. The storm system, brewing over the Atlantic, is expected to sweep across the country from Friday, November 28, through Monday, December 1, 2025, with the most dangerous conditions arriving on the final day of the warning period. And here’s the twist: even small shifts in the low-pressure system’s path could mean the difference between a wet Monday and a disaster zone.
What’s Coming and Where
The Met Office has flagged a two-phase weather event. First, a broad band of rain will sweep in from the southwest on Friday night, creeping northeastward through Saturday. By Saturday night, eastern England could see strong winds — gusts up to 60 mph — mixing with heavy downpours. Then, after a brief lull, a second wave hits on Monday, December 1, 2025, targeting central-southern and southeast England, possibly lingering into Tuesday morning. In the hills — especially the North Downs and South Downs — rainfall totals could reach 60-80 mm, more than a month’s average in just 48 hours.Meanwhile, western and northern Scotland are already under a separate Yellow Wind Warning western and northern Scotland, with wind gusts expected to hit 70 mph, and isolated spots exceeding 75 mph. Coastal villages from the Hebrides to the Orkneys are being told to secure loose items, avoid cliffs, and prepare for power outages.
Why This Storm Feels Different
This isn’t just another rainy weekend. It’s the third major Atlantic system to hit the UK since late October 2025. What’s unusual is the timing — early December — and the persistence. Normally, autumn storms taper off by late November. But this year, the jet stream has stayed stubbornly south, funneling moisture-laden air directly into British shores. The Met Office says the system is linked to unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the northeast Atlantic, a pattern seen more frequently in recent years.“Confidence is high that the weekend will be unsettled,” said Steven Keates, Deputy Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office. “But there remains some uncertainty over the exact track of the low-pressure system. Small shifts in its path could significantly affect where the heaviest rain and strongest winds occur.” That uncertainty is what makes this so dangerous. One town might get 40 mm and be fine; another, 10 km away, could see 70 mm — enough to overwhelm drainage systems built for 1980s rainfall levels.
What’s at Risk
The Met Office listed five major impacts: flooding of homes and businesses, transport delays, hazardous driving, power cuts, and communities cut off by flooded roads. In places like Exeter and Carlisle, where rivers already ran high after earlier rains, the risk of flash flooding is elevated. Emergency services in Devon and Cumbria have activated contingency plans.Train operators like Great Western Railway and TransPennine Express have warned of possible cancellations, particularly on lines running through the South Downs and along the Welsh border. Bus services in rural Wales are already being suspended in some areas. And while power companies say their grids are resilient, repeated storms have strained backup systems — especially in areas where trees are still down from last month’s gales.
What You Should Do
The Met Office urges everyone to check its website and app regularly. Don’t assume your area is safe just because the warning is “Yellow.” That label means “potential disruption,” not “minor inconvenience.” In 2023, a Yellow Warning for rain in Yorkshire led to 120 flood rescues. Last year, a similar warning in Somerset resulted in £18 million in damage.Residents should:
- Clear gutters and drains before Friday
- Move valuables from basements
- Prepare an emergency kit (torch, batteries, bottled water, medications)
- Avoid walking or driving through floodwater — just 6 inches can sweep you off your feet
- Sign up for local flood alerts via the Environment Agency
What’s Next
By Tuesday, December 2, 2025, the system should be out to sea, but the pattern isn’t done. The Met Office has already flagged another low-pressure system forming over the North Atlantic for mid-December. Climate scientists say this isn’t random. The UK is now experiencing 20% more heavy rainfall events than it did in the 1960s. What was once a “one-in-50-year flood” is becoming a “one-in-10-year event.”Local councils are starting to ask: are we building and planning for the weather we used to have — or the weather we’re getting?
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this affect commuters and public transport?
Commuters should expect significant delays, especially on rail lines crossing the South Downs and through flood-prone valleys in Wales. Great Western Railway and TransPennine Express have already warned of possible cancellations. Bus services in rural areas may be suspended entirely. The Met Office advises checking real-time updates via National Rail Enquiries or local council transport pages. Delays could last into Tuesday morning if flooding persists.
Why is the Met Office warning about 50-80 mm of rain when that seems low?
It’s not the total that’s alarming — it’s the rate. 50 mm in 12 hours is equivalent to half a month’s average rainfall falling in less than a day. In places like the North Downs, where soil is already saturated from earlier storms, that much water in a short window overwhelms drainage systems. Flash flooding becomes likely, even in areas that never flooded before.
Is this linked to climate change?
Yes. The UK has seen a 20% increase in heavy rainfall events since the 1960s, according to the UK Climate Projections. Warmer air holds more moisture — about 7% more per 1°C rise. The Atlantic storms hitting now are drawing more water from unusually warm ocean surfaces, making them wetter and more intense. While no single storm is caused by climate change, the pattern is consistent with long-term trends.
What’s the difference between Yellow, Amber, and Red warnings?
Yellow means ‘be aware’ — possible disruption. Amber means ‘be prepared’ — high likelihood of impacts like travel chaos, property damage, or risk to life. Red is the highest — ‘take action’ — extreme danger, widespread damage, and threats to life. This event is currently Yellow, but if rainfall exceeds 80 mm in 24 hours or winds hit 80+ mph, the Met Office could upgrade parts of the country to Amber.
Can I trust the Met Office’s forecast if the track is uncertain?
Yes — but with caution. Forecast models are accurate for broad patterns, but small shifts in low-pressure systems can change local outcomes dramatically. That’s why the Met Office says to monitor updates every 6 hours. Their models are among the best in the world, but weather at this scale is inherently chaotic. The key is to prepare for the worst-case scenario in your area, not wait for perfect certainty.
How long will the flooding last?
Most surface flooding will recede within 24 to 48 hours after the rain stops. But in low-lying areas with poor drainage — like parts of the Severn Vale or the Somerset Levels — water could linger for up to a week. The Environment Agency is monitoring river levels closely, and some areas may remain under flood alerts until mid-December.
